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Every time I engage in this discussion, I’ve seen that almost every person has his or her own theory about what will happen with Pakistan. Several claim no one can touch it because it is a blessed land of God (say that to me and I’ll punch you in the face); others state that although Pakistan is vulnerable, no one will dare touch it because it’s a nuclear power; and then there are others, who whine moan about how great their land is and how America will come and destroy it. Everyone has their own justification for whatever stance they take, but I think most of these people fail to analyze the facts, which can suggest, in the instance that I would like to buy into, that Pakistan may not be around on the globe for too long, and if it is, it’s boundary will require serious amendment.
Here’s why.
About 8 years ago, before the 9/11 fiasco and before the US bombed the living daylights out of Aghanistan, the Afghani economy was in shambles. Here’s the proof: I went to Afghanistan in the 90s, and the currency exchange rate at the time was 1 PKR to several hundred Aghani Rupee or whatever currency they used at the time. Today, 1.22 PKR equal 1 unit of Afghani currency. You would think that Afghanistan, being a war ridden country, would suffer substantial economic loss, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. In fact, despite the clash of the Taliban with the pro US Afghan government, the economy is booming. How? Drugs. Afghanistan is quite possibly the largest exporter of opium and heroine in the world today, and they don’t care what they do to earn dollars, but that seems to be the ultimate goal of Qarzai. Who can blame him, right?
Here’s what I think is happening. With US coalition, Qarzai and his government are pushing the Taliban and pro-terrorist folk into northern Pakistan, where they can find easy refuge in the Waziristan mountains of NWFP (North West Frontier Province). Also, there are literally millions of so called extremists in NWFP, and they control the government, the economy, the tourists, everything that goes in and out of there. In fact, they’re the only force in Pakistan that can and are giving the army a run for its money. Even the former Prime Ministers of Pakistan had no chance against the army. These monkies, on the other hand, are probably defeating the army. They’ve got better diplomatic, tactical, and physical resources, and probably more trained militia than the Pakistan Army can handle. Couple all of that with those who come over from Afghanistan, and NWFP and the Waziristan area become the new mountaineous front for Bin Laden, Al Qadeda and the Taliban and Co. that the US has been trying to destroy in Afghanistan since 2001.
So, what happens if the extremists move into Pakistan. Well, several things. Pakistan has lately seen a series of terrorist bombings in the Islamabad area, which is practically unheard of. Army posts and trucks have been blown up just because someone doesn’t like the sight of them. In essence, the internatial persona changes to the fact (Sadly) that the Pakistan Army, or Musharraf, cannot control the extremist violence in Pakistan, which threatens to put into jeopardy a rather key area in South Asia. There you go, one of the four provinces of Pakistan becomes a threat. First American target set.
This brings me to my next colonization area. The province of Balochistan. Balochistan is rich in natural resources, has decent land, and above all, it has a port that is better set to replace Dubai or Singapore than any other location on the planet. Not only is the Gawadur Port in Balochistan located at a much more convenient location than Dubai, it is much closer to the Western world than, say, Singapore. What else, the port is naturally so deep, and it is the ideal location to set up an industrial port that can dock massive commercial airliners, without having to do any drudging work in the port area. Ideally, this would mean a great opporunity for the Pakistan economy to boom and possibly learn from Dubai.
But that’s not going to happen. The current regime is unable to clean up the religious extremisim in Pakistan. At least that’s what the media portrays, and there is probably some truth to that. However, the truth is that some development is taking place in Gawadur. But it is not in US interest to let Gawadur develop as long as it is in the hands of Pakistan. Balochistan borders with Iran, for several hundred miles. It suffers from Persian influence, and let’s be honest, no one in the western world is really a fan of Iran nowadays, and taking over Balochistan would be the ideal location to start the invasion of Iran.
Second problem with Gawadur Port in Balochistan: China is developing it. Pakistan doesn’t have the resources, vision, competence, or ability to build anything successful. The country has, therefore, allowed China to lead the development of Gawadur Port, because given it’s location, it is an extremely profitable location for China. That puts a bit of a damper is the US plans to invade Iran if they plan to use Gawadur Port to dock their navy. Not only that, there’s a problem if China controls Gawadur port economically. Let’s be honest, South Asia is a huge market, and Gawadur is a great location to begin tapping Iran, Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, and China. That’s almost half the world’s population. China wants it; America needs it.
So, what’s going to happen.
As we’ve seen the US hint that the extremism in Northern Pakistan is beyond the control of Musharraf or anyone who can take charge of the Pakistan Army or Pakistan government, the US will enter Pakistan in the North and level it to the ground, just like they did Afghanistan, once again with a plea to destroying terrorism. Alongside, in an effort to attack Iran, Balochistan will become an easy target and point of entry, and quite frankly, there’s nothing Pakistan can do if the US simply says “we want it for a few months.” THe only interesting factor here is the part that China will play. If China becomes a thorn in the US ass, this could errupt into a rather serious and complicated matter that could spin a massive war in South East Asia. After the bombing NWFP, America will effectively eliminate a threat, and by cutting out the Pakistani government, they can actually strike more of a drug exporting weapon importing deal that is profitable for US business. We can’t manage NWFP, so Pakistan won’t really know what they’ve lost.
Balochistan, of course, we will feel the loss of when it gains independence (which it is dying to) and prospers on its own. It is quite possibly the only strategically useful location in Southern Pakistan. Once Balochistan and the Frontier go, Pakistan is only left with the provinces of Punjab and Sindh, and who the hell wants those. Some crops, terrible weather, extreme filth, and over 100 million people. Everyone will just let them be and destroy themselves. At that point, if the Pakistani people have any competence, they may consider merging back into India, partition from which was one of the biggest mistakes that the Muslims of South Asia have made to date.
Of course, none of this may ever happen if Bush doesn’t get to do it. I don’t think democrats will go this far while the US economy suffers due to serious negligence and expansive defence funding.
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