corporate finance:

Budget vs. Forecast | Financial Planning & Analysis

2

I completed my first set of US GAAP compliant Financial Statements in 2001, filing my first complete set of payroll, sales, and corporate income taxes that year for a client.  Over the years, I’ve worked for a variety of clients on a variety of accounting related projects, and I can tell you one thing I’ve learnt from my experience:  the goals of financial and management reporting are opposite, and they are in many ways victims of language and ‘political correctness,’ or incorrectness, as the case may be.

Say what you must, the truth is that the goal of businesses and management accounting or financial planning and analysis is to maximize profits.  For most businesses, most SMEs especially, the goal is to minimize profits.  If you’re taught at university, school or professional accounting training that the the ultimate goal is to maximize profits, well, then, you’re being taught wrong.  More likely, you’ve also the heard the statement about watching out for the stakeholder.  Well, sometimes it is in the stakeholder’s favour to not show a profit.  It’s all about perspective.  For many small businesses, a profit means a hefty tax.  A loss means money well spent on your needs and not on paying money to the government.

The fact that financial and management reporting can actually point to opposite things as being beneficial for a business is representative of how misleading accounting and finance terminology and theory can be.  Just take management reporting, and you can read and write books on the difference between a budget and a forecast.  Some have decided, for better or for worse, which is which.  But for those of us who are more open minded, there are questions that lurk around this discussion that really don’t have an answer.

I once told a student that if after qualifying as a licensed accountant, if he could tell me whether a forecast drove a budget or a budget drives a forecast, he can consider his CIMA qualification to be a useful one.  But I can tell you, the chap has no chance of convincing me which should come first.  Some say that a forecast is simply an extension of past activity, while a budget is a defined plan of what the business plans to accomplish, spend, and do within a specified time.  But what really drives this budget?  Isn’t it supposed to be a sales forecast?  Or a forecast is based on the plan of what you can be expected to produce in a certain year.  Would you like to expect sales based on production capacity, or would you like to drive production based on expected sales?  No CIMA, ACCA, CPA, ACA, CMA, CFM or CFA qualification will discuss any of this, because the true, always right, never wrong answer to this question is “it depends.”

It depends on what?  Well, on whatever you want.  The preference, thought and management style of the management of a specific company drives the creation of budgets and forecasts, and there’s really no ‘right’ way to do this.  Yes, there are certain accepted formats to prepare a budget and a forecast, but let’s face it, the integrity of a document such as a forecast or a budget, which really has a subjective head or a subjective foot, is total speculation.  Think of it as a vicious circle.  Once you’ve decided which comes first, either the budget or the forecast, each item has to be revised based on actual performance compared to both budgets and forecasts, resulting in what is termed as a flexible budget.  So, not only can a budget drive a forecast, but a forecast drive a budget, and each figure can change, with the change be driven by actual activity.

Make sense?  Fear not.  The point of this article is not to explain budgeting or formatting.  Accounting, despite what many say, is an extremely inconsistent field, and no amount of experience can make just anything right.  There is no necessarily right process, especially not for all user groups or all audiences, hence the variations in the kinds of accounting you see today:  financial, management, environmental, forensic and systems to name a few.  The trick is to understand your business, and realize whether working on a budget driven from forecast model (a more of a just in time operations management approach) is better than the conventional “let’s churn out as much as we can” ideology, which can be very costly unless you have someone along the likes the Walmart or Carrefoure to forecast the unloading of  your budgeted production.


Continue Reading

The Recession & Corporate Finance

2

With the global economy slowing down, gas/petrol prices at a new high, and unemployment keeping up with the rate of inflation, businesses are starting to feel the burden of the consumer’s reduced ability to spend. With slumping sales and shying margins, businesses are starting to scale back on what now seems like careless expenditure, which before seemed like tax savings. Funny how a trend in the global economy can put a different spin on the temperament of spending by management on ridiculous items in big business, but then corporate world is full of, well, stupid activity.

With these trends in the economy and businesses, companies are pressuing Finance and Accounting Departments produce more useful, effective, and balanced numbers, that not only help the company look healthy to external parties, but keeps motivation up for the workforce and other direct stakeholders. Pressure mounting on Corporate Finance means that accountants now have to make more more of an effort to make sure the numbers are accurate and look like what management wants to see. That, is where it all becomes hairy.

With pressure mounting in Accounting Departments in Corporations across the United States and Europe, Corporate Finance Departments are increasingly using fancy accounting measures to try and make the situation look optimistic. Controllers and Finance Managers across the globe want to see low DSOs and high DPOs; the trend to track cash flow and cash efficiencies becomes commonplace; revenue recognition guidelines cross over into the gray area, and the hiring and spending on items that were once treated as as an expense are now looked at from the perspective of investments and assets. Such is the nature of finance management: it is driven and managed to please the boards, CEOs, CFOs, stockholders and investors.

But perhaps the greatest affect of Corporate Finance is one that is hardly ever discussed or talked about. In times of slowing global economies, the position of many accountans and finance managers in large corporation becomes a political one, and many will, and have to, for the sake of protecting their careers, venture over a gray area, where reports and numbers are produced that show NOT what the business is doing, but showing what management wants to see the business doing. In effect, this means that numbers are either fudged or presented inaccurately simply for the sake of keeping jobs or moving up the ladder. Let’s be honest: about 80% of all people in the Corporate World go up the ladder not because they know what the hell they’re doing, but because they try and please the boss, whether it’s for the better or the worse of the business itself.

That’s where the problem ultimately lies. It is in these times of recession that Coporate Finance can specifically point out the areas where the business can improve, where efficiency is not acceptable, where improvement is possible, and what things need to be like to maintaining increasing margins and growing sales. But instead of using the intelligence of accounting and finance, many businesses kill this one chance of harnessing the power of Corporate Finance, and kill it with their need to look good in front of a Board of Directors or Shareholders, which eventually kills the business. For this, amongst other things, it is imperative that Corporate Finance and Accounting Departments across Corporations stay focused and produce reports that accurately measure the position of their businesses, so they actually have a chance of riding out the recession, rather than looking to gain a promotion in a business that will shut down in the next five years.

Of course, Financial Planning and Analysis is not an area that many accountants excel in, which is why many may make the mistake of not looking past the next five years.


Continue Reading


Follow Us

  • Twitter
  • RSS

Categories

Archive